We’ve seen the peak of American Football. It had a good run.
Those saying, “No way! Football forever! What will replace it?”
A) Boxing and horse racing were the top sports by a large margin in the early 20th century. 80 years later – nobody cared except for championships. Football will be the same. Give it 30 years and nobody will care.
B) Probably a fragmentation. We have more devices and access to more content than ever before. More content is being produced and consume every single day.
My prediction is that football becomes like the NBA today. It’s still on ESPN, but it’s not dominant. It’s niche.
Football will soon (10 years) be niche. Rugby, lacrosse and hockey stand to gain the most from the fall of the NFL (and college football – which will become like Nascar).
Think about it: people say they watch football for the action. But it’s so slow. And has so little action in the 4 hour span. Hockey is faster paced, plenty of action and takes less time in the day. Same with rugby and lacrosse.
Plus – virtual reality. Why watch other, super freaks smash into each other when you could play a bunch of people virtually from the comfort of your home/backyard.
Why would you have your kid play the game with all the injuries when they could play a game that won’t mess them up forever? Flag football might surge in popularity.